FORECAST_LINEAR function

Description

Forecasts a variable by fitting a straight line to the data. It is a model that relates a response variable Y to an input variable x by the equation

Y=ax+b

The quantities a (slope) and b (intercept) are arguments of the regression model. The fitting is done using the ordinary least squares method.

Syntax

FORECAST_LINEAR(Source Metric [, Ranking Dimension] [, Alternate Metric])

• Source Metric is the data source on which the linear regression is computed, and must be a metric with data points as an expression of Integer or number type.  This metric must include the same dimension that is used in the Ranking Dimension argument.

• Ranking Dimension is the dimension by which the regression is computed. If left undefined, the ranking dimension defaults to a  Calendar Dimension from Source Metric. If Source Metric is defined on multiple Calendar Dimensions, you must define which dimension to use.  If you want to use a dimension outside of time, you must define it here.

• Alternate Metric is an optional argument that allows you to forecast Source Metric based on another metric. Alternate Metric must be another metric with the exact same dimensionality as Source Metric

The last 2 arguments, Ranking Dimension and Alternate Metric are optional.

Return type

All the time series cells will be filled by an integer or decimal value starting from the first empty cell until the last value of the Ranking Dimension (as it is sorted).

Note: If the regression is against an Alternate Metric, the forecast will only compute a value on non-empty X values.

How the slope is calculated across dimensions

The quantities a (slope) and b (intercept) are arguments of the regression model. The fitting is done using the ordinary least squares method. The slope a and intercept b are computed on all the dimensions that are not designed as the Ranking Dimension. This calculation will be performed on all items within the dimensions outside of the Ranking Dimension.

It means that when performing a linear regression on time on a metric based on Month and Country, the resulting metric will have a different equation on all country items.

For example, let's say you have a metric with Month, Country, and Product, and you use Month as the Ranking Dimension the linear regression would be performed for each item in the Country and Product dimensions.

Note: If Source Metric has empty values, they won't be taken into account to compute a and b.

Note: If the Source Metric has only one data point, the linear regression will return a constant function equal to the only available data point

Examples

Metric Sales defined on 1 Dimension

Forecasted Sales =FORECAST_LINEAR('Sales','Month’)

Metric Sales defined on 2 Dimensions

Forecasted Sales =FORECAST_LINEAR('Sales','Month’) aggregated on Countries

Forecasted Sales =FORECAST_LINEAR('Sales','Month’) not aggregated on Countries

Metric Cost of sales against Metric Sales.

Forecasted Salary =FORECAST_LINEAR('Cost of sales actuals’,'Month','Sales per month')

References

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/mathematics/simple-linear-regression

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